A Deep Dive Into the South Florida Housing Market

As the calendar turns toward the final quarter of 2025, the South Florida and the Miami real estate market remains as dynamic as ever. Fueled by a combination of easing mortgage rates, elevated inventory, and shifting buyer psychology, the market continues to reflect a complex but opportunity-rich environment—especially for those navigating the luxury tier with clarity and timing.

While some headlines continue to tout record-high prices or warn of nationwide cool-downs, the truth in South Florida's most sought-after enclaves, including  Miami Beach, Brickell, and Sunny Isles, is more nuanced. September has revealed a marketplace in transition—where sellers are adjusting to longer marketing times, buyers are regaining leverage, and the luxury sector continues to chart its own course.

The most recent full dataset (August 2025) offers clear evidence of where the Miami-Dade market currently stands.

Single-family homes posted a median sale price of $655,000, up 2.3% year-over-year, with a 6.4-month supply. Properties are taking roughly 51 days to go under contract, a notable increase from prior periods but indicative of a more deliberate, informed buying process.

Condos and townhomes, by contrast, showed a slight median price decline to $410,000 (down 1.2% YoY) with 14.0 months of supply—an inventory level that tilts the segment in favor of buyers. Days on market for these properties now averages 67, reflecting hesitancy amid building-safety rule changes and insurance uncertainties.

Despite those concerns, luxury condos priced above $1 million posted an 11% annual increase in sales, signaling continued strength at the top of the market—particularly for properties in newer buildings or well-capitalized associations.

Following the Fed's September rate cut, 30-year fixed mortgage rates settled around 6.26%–6.30%. While not historically low, this shift has given some buyers renewed confidence—especially those watching for a sub-6% break in early 2026.

The broader effect has been a gradual re-entry of buyers, notably in the mid-tier and luxury single-family market, where high cash shares (22.8% in August) and desirable locations remain strong motivators. Pending sales are up across most Miami submarkets, and a recent surge in tour activity suggests that well-priced homes are once again commanding attention.

Still, it's worth noting that more than half of homes listed in July across the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area were pulled from the market without selling, a sharp rise in delistings. That speaks to a pricing gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are willing to absorb in a higher-rate, cost-sensitive environment.

Across Miami, the market reflects a broad mix of product types—from historic single-family homes to ultra-modern condos in Brickell and Edgewater. The narrative is one of selective traction: homes that are turnkey, correctly priced, and professionally marketed are selling quickly, while older or non-renovated properties are experiencing longer lead times and more negotiation-heavy offers.

Luxury condos, in particular, have seen a return of momentum, especially in towers with comprehensive amenities, strong reserve funds, and thoughtful design.

Miami Beach inventory is wide-ranging and heavily condo-based, resulting in a varied buyer experience. Homes priced under $1 million are seeing the most significant negotiation, especially in older buildings facing reserve and structural assessments. Conversely, turnkey waterfront condos with views continue to draw strong interest from both domestic buyers and foreign investors, particularly cash-ready shoppers from Latin America and Western Europe.

Miami's downtown financial hub, Brickell remains a story of contrasts. Newer, amenity-rich towers are holding value with solid absorption, while older or minimally updated buildings are trading at a discount. Buyers are far more discerning than in 2021–22, carefully reviewing HOA financials, capital improvement histories, and insurance rates before proceeding. For sellers, providing a complete picture—especially around SIRS compliance and reserves—can make or break a deal.

Known for its historic architecture and walkable lifestyle, Coral Gables has maintained steady traction. Updated single-family homes within premier school zones and tree-lined streets remain highly desirable, though buyers are showing less urgency than in prior years. Sellers with homes that require updates must approach pricing more strategically, as premium buyers increasingly focus on homes in "move-in ready" condition.

These adjacent neighborhoods are quietly evolving into some of the most vibrant in the Greater Miami area. Edgewater continues to benefit from its proximity to Biscayne Bay, as well as new construction. Meanwhile, Midtown walkability and location adjacent to the Miami Design District appeals to younger professionals and investors. The price per square foot remains high, but mainly for listings that check all the right boxes: full amenities, healthy HOA reserves, panoramic views, and fresh finishes. Marketing timelines have lengthened, but standout inventory still clears.

This high-rise haven for international buyers has seen an uptick in luxury interest, but only for premier units with direct ocean views or recent renovations. Sunny Isles inventory remains high, and many listings still linger unless sellers are willing to negotiate or improve presentation. That said, interest from cash buyers remains solid, particularly in buildings with strong reputations and services that mirror those of five-star resorts.

Doral continues to outperform expectations. Thanks to newer construction, top-rated schools, and a family-friendly lifestyle, the area experienced a 12.1% year-over-year increase in median home prices, with strong absorption of single-family and townhomes. Homes that show well and are priced close to recent comps are moving relatively quickly—making this one of the few submarkets where sellers still hold some leverage.

As 2025 progresses, the condo market remains bifurcated. On one side, newer towers with fully funded reserves and up-to-date structural integrity reports (SIRs) are attracting buyers willing to pay a premium. On the other, older buildings—especially those with deferred maintenance or uncertain budgeting—are sitting on the market longer, even at discounted price points.

With Florida's December 31, 2025, compliance deadline for SIRS looming, buyer due diligence has become more exhaustive than ever. Expect this divide to continue through early 2026, as HOA assessments and reserve contributions become key factors in negotiations.

Looking forward, the stage appears set for a gradual uptick in activity, especially if mortgage rates continue to ease. Historically, Q4 and Q1 are high season for South Florida luxury markets, and buyer interest tends to spike around the holidays and early spring.

• Single-family pricing is likely to remain steady or appreciate slightly, provided inventory levels remain moderate.
  
  
• Condos will continue to track unevenly, rewarding buildings with transparency and punishing those with financial opacity.
  
  
• Cash buyers remain a stabilizing force, especially above $2M, where financing constraints are minimal.

One emerging wildcard is the volume of homes re-entering the market after being delisted over the summer. If rates drop below 6% and confidence improves, we may see some of that inventory return with more competitive pricing—and more buyer engagement. Miami-Dade's housing landscape offers both challenges and opportunities. Sellers must lead with presentation and paperwork, particularly in the condo market. Buyers, meanwhile, have time and leverage—especially in older high-rise inventory and properties lacking turnkey polish. For investors, the best plays remain newer condos with clean financials, move-in-ready homes in key school zones, and single-family properties in Coral Gables and Doral.

If you're considering a purchase or investment and ready to explore more of South Florida's luxury real estate scene—or contemplating listing one of the area's high-end homes for sale—contact Jason Schonholtz today to start your real estate journey in one of the country's most sought-after luxury real estate markets.